40000 cases, 1.5% positive -- ROC hides what PR shows00.20.40.60.8100.20.40.60.81strong model: AUC 0.980moderate model: AUC 0.891weak model: AUC 0.728no skillfalse positive ratetrue positive rate (recall)ROC: everything looks good herestrong model: AUC 0.980moderate model: AUC 0.891weak model: AUC 0.728no skill00.20.40.60.8100.20.40.60.81strong model: AP 0.687moderate model: AP 0.207weak model: AP 0.045recallprecisionPrecision-recall: two of the three are unusablestrong model: AP 0.687moderate model: AP 0.207weak model: AP 0.045no skill = prevalence (1.5%)40000 cases, 1.5% positive -- ROC hides what PR shows